NRF Report Forecasts U.S. Port Imports to Fall 20% by December

Cargo volumes at America’s busiest ports are forecast to drop in the months ahead as rising tariffs continue to disrupt trade and raise costs for businesses and consumers alike.

Sharp Drop After Summer Peak

This summer, major US ports saw import volumes soar to near-record levels as retailers rushed to stock up ahead of looming tariff hikes. According to the latest Global Port Tracker, July throughput hit 2.36 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), up 20.1% from June and representing the second busiest month on record after May 2022. However, the surge is rapidly reversing: projected totals for August are 2.28 million TEU (down 1.7% year over year), with September forecast at 2.12 million TEU (down 6.8%), October at 1.95 million TEU (down 13.2%), November at 1.74 million TEU (down 19.7%), and December at just 1.7 million TEU (down 20.1% compared to last year). This would make December the slowest month since March 2023.

Tariffs Create Ripple Effects—For Ports and Shoppers Alike

The year-over-year percentage declines in late 2025 are driven by a combination of early inventory pull-forwards to evade tariffs, and by the fact that imports in late 2024 were unusually high due to concerns about possible port strikes. Beyond the numbers, industry leaders warn that trade and consumer sentiment are at risk.

Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said:
“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs. We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said:
“Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade. The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”

Legal and Policy Crosscurrents

Trade policy clouds the outlook. Reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries—including higher rates on China and a new 25% tariff on India—hit in August, though some increases were delayed and are the subject of federal appeals. While importers scramble to anticipate each development, the systemic uncertainty means American businesses manage shorter horizons, shifting supply chains, and unpredictable costs.

By the Numbers: 2025 and Beyond

• The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year.

• The full year is projected at 24.7 million TEU, down 3.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

• January 2026 is forecast at just 1.8 million TEU, nearly 19% lower than January 2025.

These numbers come from Global Port Tracker, which covers key West, Gulf, and East Coast ports from Los Angeles to Miami. The consistent decline signals lower store inventories, squeezed margins, and the potential for retail price hikes—impacts that will be felt through the supply chain and by US consumers heading into the new year.

What Comes Next

NRF and Hackett Associates will continue to monitor these developments, producing targeted reports for retail members and stakeholders across the industry. Subscription information and further details are available at NRF.com/PortTracker.

With no end to tariff uncertainty in sight and volumes set to slide through the winter, ports, retailers, and shoppers alike will be watching closely for any changes in US trade policy or global economic headwinds.